Report: 72% of jobs will require more than a high school diploma in 2031

A new report from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce projects that by 2031, 72% of jobs in the country will require a college degree or some sort of post-secondary training.

A high school diploma doesn’t go as far as it used to in the American workforce, and that trend is expected to continue. In 1983, 68% of jobs in the nation required no more than a high school education, a number that dwindled to 32% by 2021.

Fields that require more educated workers are growing at a faster rate than fields that require less-educated workers, says the report. Some of those fast-growing fields are healthcare services, professional services, and government and public education services.

“Postsecondary education is no longer just the preferred pathway to middle-class jobs—it is, increasingly, the only pathway,” says the report, “After Everything: Projections of Jobs, Education, and Training Requirements through 2031.”

The report has a state-by-state projection of workforce needs, and California is in the middle of the pack. Of all jobs in California, 67 percent — or  roughly 12.6 million — will require some postsecondary training beyond high school in 2031. The report forecasts that 37% of jobs will require a bachelor’s degree or graduate degree.

Researchers are skeptical of claims that automation will kill jobs. More likely, they write, automation will reduce specific tasks within jobs, while the number of jobs continues to grow. It estimates there will be 171 million jobs in 2031, up from 156 million in 2021.