‘Very unlikely’ California has enough money for proposed budget, Legislative Analyst’s Office says

California will be about $30 billion shy of the money it needs to afford its proposed multiyear budget, the Legislative Analyst’s Office announced Tuesday.

It’s “plausible” the state will have enough money for the governor’s May budget revision in the short term, but by 2024-25 expenses will probably outstrip revenue.

“Our analysis suggests that level of revenue is very unlikely — there is less than a one‑in‑six chance the state can afford the May Revision spending level across the five‑year period,” according to the LAO. “This means that, if the Legislature adopts the Governor’s May Revision proposals, the state very likely will face more budget problems over the next few years.”

The Legislature will vote on a final budget by June 15.

No cuts are anticipated in the governor’s proposed budget for education, H.D. Palmer, spokesman for the state Department of Finance, said Wednesday. The governor’s proposed budget takes into account potential revenue shortfalls, he said.

“The report’s uncertain outlook for the coming years underscores the importance of the principles reflected in this year’s May Revision,” Palmer said. “First, sustain and protect core programs. Second, don’t compound the risks that we know exist with higher spending that may not be sustainable. And third, maintain the state’s substantial reserves as an essential insurance policy against further fiscal uncertainty.”